Oil Price Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Iran as a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy

Authors

  • Afshari Zahra
  • Maryam Faraji
Abstract:

Oil price shocks are the major source of economic instability in oil exporting developing countries, including Iran. In this paper a Multi Sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, with emphasis on optimization of oil sector as a producing sector is designed. Furthermore, an optimizing import sector is introduced into the model by considering the price rigidity in imported goods as a source of inefficiency in a New Keynesian open economy. The impact of oil price shocks on the dynamics of the economic variables is considered during 1988:1-2011:1. For this purpose, the Bayesian approach is used to estimate the model. The impulse response functions show that immediately after an oil price shock, output increases in the oil sector, while in the non-oil sector the result is reverse. Furthermore, GDP, consumption and inflation increase, while the employment and real exchange rate decreases immediately and finally, all the variables converge to their steady state values. JEL Classification: C61, D50, E12, Q43

Upgrade to premium to download articles

Sign up to access the full text

Already have an account?login

similar resources

Oil Price Shock and Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of Small Open Oil Exporting Economy - Case of Iran

Oil price shocks are the main source of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries. It is believed that appropriate monetary policy can help to stabilize these unwanted variations toward optimal allocations. A stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model featuring the properties of both cost push and wealth effect transmission channels is developed for the Iranian economy. In thi...

full text

Trade Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy

In this paper we analyze the role of trade shocks in shaping aggregate fluctuations in Venezuela from 1950 to 1995. To this end a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy whose main productive activity rests in the exports of a single basic product is specified. Shocks to the terms of trade which are directly associated to oil price changes are modelled as a foreign transfer...

full text

Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper analyzes the effects of oil price shocks on the characteristics of the business cycle and on welfare in a small open economy, such as in the case of the Spanish economy. The results show the ability of the model to reproduce the business cycle path of the Spanish economy, especially in those periods when shocks in the price of oil were most dramatic. Furthermore, the model reproduces...

full text

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on an Oil-exporting Economy*

We estimate the effects of unexpected changes in oil prices on output for the case of Venezuela, an oil-exporting economy. Following Hamilton (2003), Lee et al. (1995), and Mork (1989), we estimate measures of oil shocks and determine the effect of these shocks on the Venezuelan economy. Our results suggest that oil shocks have had positive and significant effects on output growth in Venezuela ...

full text

Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables of Oil Exporting and Importing Countries: A Global VAR Approach

    This paper investigates the effects of oil price shocks on real GDP and inflation in selected oil exporting and importing countries using the Global VAR approach. We have used the data for 47 countries over the 38 years from 1979 to 2015 in this research. We have grouped the countries into 21 regions. Our results indicate that firstly that the impact of shocks on the real GDP of oil-exporti...

full text

Oil Price Shocks and Inflation

The historical record Figure 1 plots the price of oil relative to the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) together with the core PCEPI inflation rate. (Core measures of inflation exclude food and energy prices.) The figure shows that the price of oil jumped sharply twice in the 1970s, as did inflation. But this relationship appears to have deteriorated over the latter par...

full text

My Resources

Save resource for easier access later

Save to my library Already added to my library

{@ msg_add @}


Journal title

volume 9  issue 2

pages  87- 117

publication date 2014-10

By following a journal you will be notified via email when a new issue of this journal is published.

Keywords

Hosted on Doprax cloud platform doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023